Distinguishing Viral from Valuable: What Makes a Beauty Brand Investable?
By: Jon Tenan, Managing Director, Global Consumer Investment Banking – Beauty & Wellness
Key Takeaways
Founder Credibility Can Create Investable Loyalty
Founder reach and expertise can accelerate trial, but investment value depends on converting awareness into repeat demand that persists beyond social buzz.
Repeat Purchase Separates Durable Demand from Viral Sales
Repeat purchasing, full-price retention and profitable customer lifetime value provide stronger evidence of durable demand than viral launch sales.
Scalable Economics Drive Long-Term Brand Value
Retail expansion creates value when sell-through, inventory discipline and unit economics hold as distribution adds working capital, promotional support and operating costs.
A viral launch can introduce a beauty brand to a large audience. Going viral alone, however, is not enough – what remains when the initial attention subsides and the substance behind a viral launch is what investors are focused on. Will those consumers buy again? Can the business grow strategically? These are just some of the questions that remain following these moments.
Baird’s October 2026 Beauty & Wellness Quarterly makes a related distinction: Social engagement should support brand development rather than relying pure virality. For founders, the challenge is to turn discovery into an ongoing customer relationship. For investors, the primary challenge is to determine whether that relationship supports a durable business.
Attention is the Starting Point, Not the Final Destination
A founder can lead their established audience to the brand, kicking off its launch or helping with the discovery. The longevity of the product and the rationale for a purchase is determined entirely by the customer. What problem does it solve? Why is the founder equipped to address it? What gives a consumer a reason to choose it over the alternatives?
In a February 2022 Glossy profile, cult-favorite brand Summer Fridays spotlighted a useful example. Lauren Ireland said the idea for the brand emerged early in her first pregnancy as she reconsidered her beauty routine, while co-founder Marianna Hewitt described a decade of building an online community and listening to what it wanted. The founders connected a personal need and an existing audience with a specific product proposition.
This is only the starting point, though. It is not proof of staying power. An authentic story must be reflected in the product, positioning and customer experience. Otherwise, the narrative may generate trial without giving the customer a reason to return.
When Expertise Builds the Audience
The growing focus on clinical efficacy gives dermatologist-led brands a natural connection between founder expertise and product proposition. The audience is built around the same concerns the products aim to address.
Remedy illustrates this connection. Board-certified dermatologist Dr. Muneeb Shah, known as DermDoctor, built a following of more than 21 million across TikTok, Instagram and YouTube through skin health education. Launched in March 2024, Remedy translates that expertise into concern-led skincare, with formulas described by the brand as clinically tested and developed around patient needs.
The distinction is not simply audience size, but also why the audience listens. Expertise provides immediate credibility to consumers and retailers alike.
Repeat Purchasing Tests Durable Demand
For replenishable categories such as skincare and color cosmetics, repeat purchasing is a useful test of whether initial demand can endure. Investors should look beyond launch sales to how cohorts behave over time, including how frequently they return and whether they are purchasing at full price.
Economics are another significant indicator. Customer lifetime value should be reflective of not only cumulative revenue, but also contribution profit after relevant costs. A customer who returns only for deep discounts may add sales without delivering an attractive return on acquisition spending. Observation periods should also reflect replenishment cycles, with equivalent cohorts compared on a consistent basis.
Scaling Requires More Than Distribution
A loyal audience does not necessarily translate into a loyal consumer base. Community and education become commercially meaningful when they deepen product understanding and, more importantly, build a relationship that keeps consumers engaged with the brand beyond the transaction. Investors should assess whether that connection can sustain demand beyond a founder’s latest post or a single hero product amplified by TikTok.
Makeup by Mario illustrates how founder expertise can be translated into a broader customer experience. Sephora describes itself as the exclusive home of the brand, while Makeup by Mario promotes in-store Sephora events that allow consumers to engage with products and techniques in person. Those facts do not establish retention, but they show how education and retail execution can carry a founder’s expertise beyond social buzz.
Why It Takes a Lot to Scale a Business
Retail access is an opportunity, not the endpoint. A brand needs proper inventory planning, manufacturing relationships and management capacity to support it. Investors should distinguish shipments to a retailer from sales to consumers and examine what additional distribution requires in working capital, promotional support and operating costs.
Rare Beauty’s expansion to Ulta Beauty shows the scale a retail rollout can involve. The brand announced that it would launch on February 1, 2026, in more than 1,500 Ulta Beauty stores across the United States and on Ulta’s website. A footprint of that size can broaden access, but sustained sell-through and the economics of supporting the channel remain separate questions.
There Is No Single Path to a Successful Outcome
Different businesses will need different forms of capital and ownership. Summer Fridays’ July 2024 announcement highlighted a strategic growth investment from TSG Consumer Partners, an exit for Prelude Growth Partners and continued leadership and a significant retained stake for the founders. The structure added a growth partner without requiring a sale to a strategic acquirer.
Strategic acquisition offers another route to a positive outcome. In May 2025, e.l.f. Beauty announced a definitive agreement to acquire rhode for $800 million in cash and stock at closing, plus up to $200 million in potential earnout consideration. But this is not a level playing field. Hailey Bieber’s global profile gave rhode an awareness and reach advantage few founders can replicate. The transaction is a notable outcome for a founder-led brand. It is not, however, a template for what every beauty business can expect.
Flower Beauty offers a counterpoint. The makeup brand co-founded by Drew Barrymore closed in 2025 as parent company Maesa shifted away from color cosmetics toward other beauty categories. Its closure does not erase the business built over more than a decade, but it illustrates why founder recognition and longevity alone cannot ensure a brand’s future. Strategic relevance to its owner is a separate, crucial consideration.
Ultimately, a strategic sale is only one potential measure of success. Commercial progress, founders’ objectives and transaction readiness are other considerations, and the ideal outcome will depend on buyer fit, valuation and timing.
Consumer Behavior is the Key Investment Signal
The most useful investment discussion starts with the product and follows the consumer: what drives trial, what brings them back and whether the economics remain attractive as the business scales. Founder credibility and audience can accelerate discovery, but ultimately the investment case rests on the durability of consumer demand and the business built around it.
For founders seeking capital and investors evaluating a brand alike, the key question is the same. It’s not whether a brand has captured attention. It’s whether the brand has converted that attention into repeat behavior, sustainable economics and a platform for continued growth.
Connect with Baird’s Beauty & Wellness team to discuss how these considerations may shape capital, growth and exit planning and to access the latest Beauty & Wellness Quarterly Update.
- Topics:
- Consumer
- Thought Leadership