June 2025

A geopolitical jolt cracks the calm of a ‘grind-and-rise’ market. Just a minor shakeout to refresh the rally? Or a more erratic change in tone ahead of some key July tests on trade, the budget bill & the Fed into a less friendly seasonal backdrop?

Two months after the stock market’s climatic Tariff Panic low, there remains still plenty for investors to fret over.

Markets were reminded not to dismiss three factors that have already contributed to volatility and uncertainty in recent months- global tariff policies, fiscal deficits and debt, and the traditional drivers of the US dollar. Yet S&P closed out its best May since 2023.

Offsetting currents holding stocks in place: earnings outperformance, reassertion of Mag7, and still-ok hard economic data vs policy hazards. Bulls & bears are defined by whether one calls this churn resilience or delusion…