Abstract financial image in greens and blues

Markets & the Economy: Volatility on Volatility

This content does not reflect any recommendations of Baird.

Pockets of madness rev up quickly, the quantum/alt-power/meme stocks (like Avis) stuff runs hot in a hurry. Is AI the only game in town and how long can it carry the global markets in the new world?

Add it to the ETF Line Up

New Launches: (week ending 5/1) a few highlights…

  • WRTH~ Worth Charting Options Income ETF
  • AMA~ Defiance Daily Target 2x Long AMAT ETF
  • POEL~ Defiance Daily Target 2x Long POET ETF
  • QQMY~ Corgi Growth & Tech Buffer ETF; solid day one with $5m in volume- this is part of a wave of low-cost buffer funds, Corgi is 30bps much lower than top dogs Innovator & FT which are 80-90bps

New Filings

T Rowe Active Crypto ETF filing~ TKNZ; notable because it’s by far biggest active manager to apply their active prowess to this space

Roundhill filing for more prediction market ETFs to track Recession YES & Recession NO…

  • GDPD~ RPM Recession YES ETF
  • GDPU~ RPM Recession NO ETF

Bitwise filing for new prediction market ETFs also related to recessions & also tech layoffs…

PredictionShares There Will Be A Recession in 2026 (___)
PredictionShares There Will Not Be a Receition in 20206 (___)

PredictionShares More Tech Layoffs in 2026 Than 2025 (___)
PredictionShared Fewer Tech Layoffs in 2026 Thank 2025 (___)

ETF Check Up

ETF Buzz...

Area chart shows large inflows to ETFs and index funds since 2006, while actively managed mutual funds see outflows

It may be time to retire ‘Sell in May’…

  • SPY has been positive in 25 of the past 33 May-October periods, with only 2022 negative in the last decade

Bar chart compares SPY returns by year, showing weaker and more volatile May–October performance versus January–May

ETFs hit record fee revenue in Q1 of $6.3B, about 7% over previous peak set in Q4

  • Active funds flexing their muscle, making up 28% of the revenue pie despite 11% of aum
  • Makes sense as it charges more so this reflects their flows, active took in 37% of cash so far this year

Stacked bar chart shows ETF fee revenue rising since 2020, with passive fees dominating and active fees growing steadily