March 2026

The real bear case isn’t simply that no ceasefire happens and the region remains unsettled.

So far the tape refuses to reprice for a lasting oil surge. It’s less blind complacency than a somewhat rational yet hopeful stance that accounts for the odds of getting lucky with a near-term de-escalation.

The market continues to operate pretty mechanically…

History says regional military conflicts don’t end bull markets. Flight from risk tends to be brief if the economy/market isn’t already in a downturn.